Clinical risk models for preterm birth less than 28 weeks and less than 32 weeks of gestation using a large retrospective cohort

Abstract

Objective To develop risk prediction models for singleton preterm birth (PTB) < 28 weeks and Methods Using a retrospective cohort of 267,226 singleton births in Ontario hospitals, we included variables from the first and second trimester in multivariable logistic regression models to predict overall and spontaneous PTB < 28 weeks and Results During the first trimester, the area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of PTB < 28 weeks for nulliparous and multiparous women was 68.5% (95% CI: 63.5-73.6%) and 73.4% (68.6-78.2%), respectively, while for PTB < 32 weeks it was 68.9% (65.5-72.3%) and 75.5% (72.3-78.7%), respectively. AUCs for second-trimester models were 72.4% (95% CI: 69.7-75.1%) and 78.2% (95% CI: 75.8-80.5%), respectively, in nulliparous and multiparous women. Predicted probabilities were well-calibrated within a wide range around expected base prevalence for the study outcomes. Conclusions Our prediction models generated acceptable AUCs for PTB < 28 weeks and <32 weeks with good calibration during the first and second trimester.

Published in

Journal of perinatology
2021, volume: 41, number: 9, pages: 2173-2181

SLU Authors

• Belaghi, Reza

  • McMaster University
  • University of Tabriz

UKÄ Subject classification

Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Medicine
Probability Theory and Statistics

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41372-021-01109-3

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/126954