Effect of hydrological model selection in climate change impact assessment in the Dano tropical catchment (Burkina-Faso)

Abstract

Applying a validated hydrological model is a common approach in climate change impact studies. The current study used an ensemble of five regional climate models and two hydrological simulation models (HBV-light and GR4J). Both models were successfully calibrated and validated with coefficients of determination-R2 and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiencies-NSE ranging between 0.64 and 0.88. Compared to the reference period (1976-2005), the projected temperature shows an increase for the future periods 2021-2100, whereas for the projected precipitation change, a mixed trend is expected. The projected discharge change is very similar to the precipitation signal. The results further indicate for some climate datasets that, the climate-induced discharge change is lower than 50 mm per year for both HBV-light and GR4J, while the inter-comparison of discharges between the two hydrological models indicates differences exceeding 100 mm per year. Therefore, the choice of the hydrological model overscores the impact of the projected climate change.

Keywords

climate change; CORDEX; discharge; HBV-light; GR4J; hydrological model selection; climate change impact; tropical catchment; Burkina Faso

Published in

International journal of hydrology science and technology
2024, volume: 18, number: 3
Publisher: INDERSCIENCE ENTERPRISES LTD

SLU Authors

• Hounkpatin, Ozias

  • Department of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Global goals (SDG)

SDG6 Clean water and sanitation

UKÄ Subject classification

Environmental Sciences
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJHST.2024.140854

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/132561