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Abstract

In this paper we present three different models to forecast bird migration. They are species-specific individualbased models that operate on a high spatiotemporal resolution (kilometres, 15 min-hours), as an addition to radar-based migration forecast models that currently exist. The models vary in complexity, and use GPS-tracked location, flying direction and speed, and/or wind data to forecast migration speed and direction. Our aim is to quantitatively evaluate the forecasting performance and assess which metrics improve forecasts at different ranges. We test the models through cross-validation using GPS tracks of common cranes during spring and autumn migration. Our results show that recordings of flight speed and direction improve the accuracy of forecasts on the short range (

Keywords

Bird migration; Ecological forecasting; Common cranes; Weather forecasts; Individual-based modelling; GPS telemetry

Published in

Ecological Modelling
2024, volume: 498, article number: 110884

SLU Authors

Associated SLU-program

Wildlife Damage Centre
SLU Plant Protection Network

Global goals (SDG)

SDG15 Life on land

UKÄ Subject classification

Ecology
Zoology

Publication identifier

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110884

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/133060