Estimating Leopard population sizes in western Mozambique using SNP-based capture-mark-recapture models

Abstract

Reliable population size estimates are imperative for effective conservation and management, but are notoriously difficult to obtain for rare, cryptic species such as large carnivores. Genetic capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models can provide robust population size estimates and may be conducted noninvasively during a single sampling period. African leopards (Panthera pardus) are listed as vulnerable, with declining populations. However, population size estimates are rare for much of their range. Here, we provide population size estimates for leopards in the Limpopo (LNP) and Banhine (BNP) national parks and the Lebombo Conservancy (LC), in western Mozambique. We estimate population sizes using SNP-based CMR models derived from genetic information acquired noninvasively from scats collected across the sites. Additionally, we compare our density estimates with those derived from trophic scaling to provide inferences on the drivers of Leopard density in the region. We estimate populations of 87, 15, and 13 leopards in LNP, BNP, and LC, respectively. Population size estimates derived from trophic scaling suggest that leopards are limited by bottom-up prey resources in LNP and LC, but there is evidence for top-down regulation in BNP. Given the precariousness of Leopard populations in the region, we urge use of population monitoring using genetic CMR models to inform conservation and management.Few estimates of Leopard population sizes exist for Mozambique, hampering conservation efforts. We estimated 87, 15, and 13 leopards in Limpopo (LNP), Banhine (BNP), and the Lebombo Conservancy (LC), respectively. Populations in LNP and LC are limited by prey availability, and in BNP by poaching.

Keywords

genotyping; Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area; noninvasive; Panthera pardus; scat; trophic scaling

Published in

Journal of Mammalogy
2025
Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC

SLU Authors

• Forbes, Ryan

  • Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    
  • Nelson Mandela University

• Mamugy, Faruk

  • Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    
  • Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM)

• Spong, Göran

  • Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Ecology
Fish and Wildlife Management

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyaf004

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/141149