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Research article2025Peer reviewedOpen access

Impact of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 on the EU wood-based bioeconomy

Di Fulvio, Fulvio; Snaell, Tord; Lauri, Pekka; Forsell, Nicklas; Moenkkoenen, Mikko; Burgas, Daniel; Blattert, Clemens; Eyvindson, Kyle; Caicoya, Astor Torano; Vergarechea, Marta; Anton-Fernandez, Clara; Klein, Julian; Astrup, Rasmus; Lukkarinen, Jani; Pitzen, Samuli; Primmer, Eeva

Abstract

The EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims to conserve and restore biodiversity by protecting large areas throughout the European Union. A target of the EUBDS is to protect 30 % of the EU's land area by 2030, with 10% being strictly protected (including all primary and old growth forests) and 20% being managed 'closer to nature'. Even though this will have a positive impact on biodiversity, it may negatively impact the EU's woodbased bioeconomy. In this study, we analyze how alternative interpretations and distributions of the EU's protection targets may affect future woody biomass harvest levels, exports of wood commodities, and the spatial distribution of managed areas under wood demands aligned with SSP2-RCP1.9. Using the model GLOBIOMForest, we simulate scenarios representing a variety of interpretations and geographic distributions of the EUBDS targets. The EUBDS targets would have a limited impact on EU harvest levels since the EU can still increase its wood harvest between 21 % and 24 % by 2100. With strict protection of 30 % of the area, the EU harvest level can still be increased by 10 %. Moreover, the most likely scenario (10 %/20 % protection within each MS) will result in increased net exports in the coming decades, but a slight decline after 2050. However, if protection is intended to also represent site productivity or to re-establish a green infrastructure, then EU net exports will also decline before 2050. With the decreased EU roundwood harvest, increased harvest will occur in other biomes and mostly leaking into boreal regions.

Keywords

Bioeconomy; Wood harvest; Protection; Biodiversity; Modelling; Forest sector; Leakage

Published in

Global Environmental Change
2025, volume: 92, article number: 102986
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD

SLU Authors

UKÄ Subject classification

Ecology
Environmental Sciences

Publication identifier

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102986

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/141293