Blennow, Kristina
- Department of Landscape Architecture, Planning and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
- Lund University
Abstract
This study developed and applied a methodology and framework to analyse decision-making and identify communication needs related to Populus spp. cultivation on agricultural land in southern Sweden, where adoption remains limited despite significant biomass potential. By comparing farmers’ willingness and actual cultivation decisions, and linking these to expectations on economic, agronomic, and environmental outcomes, we moved beyond attitudes to analyse choices. We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict cultivation decisions and willingness to cultivate using Net Value of Expected Impact (NVEI) as a predictor. Integrating decision-making with willingness revealed drivers of adoption and barriers persisting despite positive attitudes. NVEI scores strongly predicted both willingness and cultivation decisions, with regional contrasts evident. In the Forested region, farmers anticipated greater economic and agronomic benefits but had lower expectations for biodiversity, suggesting a knowledge gap and a need for communication providing comparative evidence on biodiversity benefits. In the Lowland region, higher expectations for environmental benefits highlight the need for tailored information on biodiversity, landscape value, and ecological connectivity. Low scores for workload and management ease across all groups indicate uncertainty about practical aspects, supporting the need for targeted communication. Overall, regionally tailored, evidence-based guidelines can support informed decision-making.
Keywords
Net Value of Expected Impact (NVEI); evidence-based communication guidelines; 30 decision-making; attitude–behaviour gap; bioenergy crops; Populus spp. cultivation
Published in
Publisher: bioRxiv
SLU Authors
Anander, Elin
- Department of Landscape Architecture, Planning and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
- Department of Landscape Architecture, Planning and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
UKÄ Subject classification
Agricultural Economics and Management and Rural development
Publication identifier
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.08.11.669630
Permanent link to this page (URI)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/143496