Skip to main content
SLU publication database (SLUpub)

Abstract

Blooms of filamentous cyanobacteria regularly occur in the Baltic Sea during warm summer months. These blooms can be toxic and interfere with recreational activities. However, the underlying drivers of these events and how their distribution might change in response to future climate conditions remain poorly understood. To investigate this, we applied a multi-realm modeling approach that integrates environmental data from both marine and terrestrial systems, combined with climate projections, to predict future filamentous and nitrogenfixing cyanobacterial distribution along Sweden's Baltic Sea coast. Our models identified several key factors significantly influencing bloom distribution: terrestrial temperature, precipitation during the wettest quarter, sea surface temperature, nitrate levels, and interactions between land-based and marine environmental variables. Our projections suggest an expansion of filamentous cyanobacteria in the northern Baltic Proper, Bothnian Sea, Bothnian Bay, and Arkona Basin driven by rising land temperatures by 2070, increasing sea surface temperatures by 2100, and declining salinity in specific basins. Overall, the results demonstrate that incorporating environmental data from both land and sea improves predictions of cyanobacterial distribution in coastal Baltic Sea regions. This multi-realm modeling strategy may also prove valuable for forecasting and managing harmful cyanobacterial blooms in other coastal areas experiencing similar environmental challenges.

Keywords

Multi-realm; Cyanobacteria; Environmental change; Prediction; Species distribution modeling; Omission rate

Published in

Ecological Informatics
2025, volume: 92, article number: 103439
Publisher: ELSEVIER

SLU Authors

UKÄ Subject classification

Ecology

Publication identifier

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103439

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/144381