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Abstract

Climate change is predicted to lower yields through increased disease pressure. Yet, we often lack insights into how climate affects disease dynamics, and how we can manage the environment to reduce the impact of climate change. This knowledge gap is especially prominent for stem and root diseases that concern smallholder farmers in low-income countries. To provide insights into the patterns and drivers of stem and root diseases, and how they will be affected by climate change, we surveyed the prevalence and incidence of a major stem (coffee wilt disease; Gibberella xylarioides) and root disease (Armillaria root rot; Armillaria mellea) attacking Arabica coffee in 58 sites in southwestern Ethiopia, and simultaneously recorded climatic, habitat, spatial and management variables. Coffee wilt disease was found in all but four sites, and the incidence of coffee wilt disease was positively affected by temperature and soil moisture, negatively affected by coffee density and lower in sites with a more forest-like shade tree species composition. Armillaria root rot was found in 29 out of 58 sites. While none of the factors explained the prevalence of Armillaria root rot, Armillaria root rot incidence was, in contrast to coffee wilt disease, negatively affected by temperature. Armillaria root rot was positively affected by soil moisture and surrounding forest cover. Canopy cover affected the two diseases through opposing direct and indirect pathways, resulting in non-significant total effects. Neither of the two diseases was affected by coffee structure index (reflecting e.g. pruning), the proportion of coffee berry disease resistant cultivars, or each other's presence. Overall, our findings shed light on the patterns and drivers of stem and root diseases, and provide management guidelines to reduce the devastating impact of these diseases for smallholder farmers.

Keywords

Armillaria mellea; Canopy cover; Climate change; Gibberella xylarioides; Management variables; Soil moisture; Soil temperature

Published in

Basic and Applied Ecology
2025, volume: 89, pages: 59-70
Publisher: ELSEVIER GMBH

SLU Authors

UKÄ Subject classification

Climate Science
Agricultural Science

Publication identifier

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2025.10.005

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/144706