Forecasting the influence of temperature increase on the development of the Colorado potato beetle [Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say)] in the Wielkopolska region of Poland

Abstract

The Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) is probably the most dangerous pest species of potatoes. This study assessed the influence of expected climate warming on the number of Colorado potato beetle generations in the Wielkopolska region of Poland using two simulation models, SimLep 1 and NumoGen 1. Two types of data sets were utilised in the simulations: real meteorological data recorded in Winna Gora (52.2N; 17.4E) in the period 20022011 and virtual data obtained after transformation of the real data to include an increase in the recorded temperature values between 1 and 6 degrees C. The threat to potato crops from Colorado potato beetle was found to increase in response to expected climate change. A temperature increase of 2 degrees C above that recorded during the last few years would allow the development of two full generations of the beetle, and further temperature increases may even permit the occurrence of three generations.

Keywords

Colorado potato beetle; global warming; simulation

Published in

Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section B - Soil and Plant Science
2013, volume: 63, number: 2, pages: 136-146
Publisher: TAYLOR & FRANCIS AS

SLU Authors

• Sigvald, Roland

  • Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Soil Science
Agricultural Science

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09064710.2012.733021

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/53851