Novel multimodel ensemble approach to evaluate the sole effect of elevated CO2 on winter wheat productivity

Abstract

Elevated carbon-dioxide concentration [eCO(2)] is a key climate change factor affecting plant growth and yield. Conventionally, crop modeling work has evaluated the effect of climatic parameters on crop growth, without considering CO2. It is conjectured that a novel multimodal ensemble approach may improve the accuracy of modelled responses to eCO(2). To demonstrate the applicability of a multimodel ensemble of crop models to simulation of eCO(2), APSIM, CropSyst, DSSAT, EPIC and STICS were calibrated to observed data for crop phenology, biomass and yield. Significant variability in simulated biomass production was shown among the models particularly at dryland sites (44%) compared to the irrigated site (22%). Increased yield was observed for all models with the highest average yield at dryland site by EPIC (49%) and lowest under irrigated conditions (17%) by APSIM and CropSyst. For the ensemble, maximum yield was 45% for the dryland site and a minimum 22% at the irrigated site. We concluded from our study that process-based crop models have variability in the simulation of crop response to [eCO(2)] with greater difference under water-stressed conditions. We recommend the use of ensembles to improve accuracy in modeled responses to [eCO(2)].

Published in

Scientific Reports
2019, Volume: 9, article number: 7813
Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP

SLU Authors

• Ahmed, Mukhtar

  • Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    
  • Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University
  • Washington State University

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG13 Climate action


UKÄ Subject classification

Climate Research
Agricultural Science


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44251-x

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/100602