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Research article - Peer-reviewed, 2019

To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Kipling, R. P.; Graux, A. -I.; Hutchings, N. J.; Lauwers, L.; Gulzari, S. Ozkan; Reidsma, P.; Rolinski, S.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Sandars, D. L.; Sandor, R.; Schoenhart, M.; Topp, C. F. E.; Seddaiu, G.; van Middelkoop, J.; Shrestha, S.; Weindl, I.; Eory, V.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D. J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.;
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Abstract

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

Keywords

Adaptation; Agricultural modelling; Climate change; Research challenges

Published in

Environmental Modelling and Software
2019, Volume: 120, article number: 104492

    Sustainable Development Goals

    SDG13 Climate action
    SDG2 Zero hunger

    UKÄ Subject classification

    Agricultural Science

    Publication Identifiers

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492

    Permanent link to this page (URI)

    https://res.slu.se/id/publ/101294