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Research article - Peer-reviewed, 2019

To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Kipling, R. P.; Graux, A. -I.; Hutchings, N. J.; Lauwers, L.; Gulzari, S. Ozkan; Reidsma, P.; Rolinski, S.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Sandars, D. L.; Sandor, R.; Schoenhart, M.; Topp, C. F. E.; Seddaiu, G.; van Middelkoop, J.; Shrestha, S.; Weindl, I.; Eory, V.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D. J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.;
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Abstract

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

Keywords

Adaptation; Agricultural modelling; Climate change; Research challenges

Published in

Environmental Modelling and Software
2019, volume: 120, article number: 104492

Authors' information

Kipling, R.P.
Aberystwyth University
Topp, C.F.E.
Scotland's Rural College (SRUC)
Bannink, A.
Wageningen University and Research
Bartley, D.J.
Moredun Research Institute
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Clinical Sciences
Institute of Agrifood Research and Technology (IRTA)
Cortignani, R.
University of Tuscia
del Prado, A.
Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)
Dono, G.
University of Tuscia
Faverdin, P.
National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRA)
Graux, A.-I.
National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRA)
Hutchings, N.J.
Aarhus University
Lauwers, L.
Flanders Research Institute for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
Özkan Gülzar, S.
Wageningen University and Research
Reidsma, P.
Wageningen University and Research
Rolinski, S.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Ruiz-Ramos, M.
Polytechnic University of Madrid
Sandars, D.L.
Cranfield University
Sándor, R.
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Schönhart, M.
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU)
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Sustainable Development Goals

SDG13 Climate action
SDG2 Zero hunger

UKÄ Subject classification

Agricultural Science

Publication Identifiers

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492

URI (permanent link to this page)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/101294