Abstract

Model results in this work indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. A physical lake model and a mechanistic phosphorus model are combined with two temperature scenarios generated by a regional climate model (RCM) in three sites in central Sweden-Lake Erken and two basins of Lake Malaren (Galten and Ekoln). In the phosphorus model water mixing, mineralization, diffusion and biouptake are temperature dependent. In the simulations, Lake Erken is much more sensitive to climate warming than the two basins of Lake Malaren, and the reason is shown to be the much longer water residence time in Lake Erken (7 years), stressing the importance of internal lake processes. In Galten and Ekoln the water residence times are less than I year, and the effects of water temperature changes are small. In Lake Erken the concentration of epilimnetic-dissolved phosphorus is almost doubled in spring and autumn in the warmest climate scenario. Since the lake is mostly phosphorus limited, this means that the potential for phytoplankton production is almost doubled. The implication would be that in Lake Erken, and in other eutrophic lakes with long water residence times, eutrophication problems may become serious in the future, and that managers may need to take action today in order to maintain good water quality in these lakes. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Keywords

climate scenario; phosphorus; lakes; LEEDS-model; PROBE-model; regional climate model; eutrophication

Published in

Ecological Modelling
2006, Volume: 190, number: 1-2, pages: 1-14
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

UKÄ Subject classification

Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Ecology


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.017

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/102705