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Research article - Peer-reviewed, 2020

No polarization-Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists

Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Gonçalves, Luísa; Borys, Alexander; Dutcă, Ioan; Hynynen, Jari; Janeczko, Emilia; Lyubenova, Mariyana; Martel, Simon; Merganic, Jan; Merganicova, Katarina; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Petr, Michal; Reboredo, Fernando H.; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Reyer, Christopher P.O.


The role of values in climate-related decision-making is a prominent theme of climate communication research. The present study examines whether forest professionals are more driven by values than scientists are, and if this results in value polarization. A questionnaire was designed to elicit and assess the values assigned to expected effects of climate change by forest professionals and scientists working on forests and climate change in Europe. The countries involved covered a north-to-south and west-to-east gradient across Europe, representing a wide range of bio-climatic conditions and a mix of economic-social-political structures. We show that European forest professionals and scientists do not exhibit polarized expectations about the values of specific impacts of climate change on forests in their countries. In fact, few differences between forest professionals and scientists were found. However, there are interesting differences in the expected values of forest professionals with regard to climate change impacts across European countries. In Northern European countries, the aggregated values of the expected effects are more neutral than they are in Southern Europe, where they are more negative. Expectations about impacts on timber production, economic returns, and regulatory ecosystem services are mostly negative, while expectations about biodiversity and energy production are mostly positive.


climate change impacts; decision-making; risk perception; homogeneity of expected values; value polarization; strength of expected values

Published in

2020, volume: 12, number: 7, article number: 2659

Authors' information

Persson, Johannes
Lund University
Gonçalves, Luísa
Polytechnic Institute of Leiria
Borys, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Dutcă, Ioan
Transylvania University of Brasov
Hynynen, Jari
Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE)
Janeczko, Emilia
Warsaw University of Life Sciences
Lyubenova, Mariyana
Sofia University
Martel, Simon
National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRA)
Merganic, Jan
Technical University in Zvolen
Merganicova, Katarina
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Peltoniemi, Mikko
Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
Petr, Michal
Forestry Commission
Reboredo, Fernando H.
Nova University of Lisbon
Vacchiano, Giorgio
University of Milano, Italy
Reyer, Christopher P.O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG13 Climate action

UKÄ Subject classification

Forest Science
Climate Research

Publication Identifiers


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