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Research article - Peer-reviewed, 2020

Combining Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios with Current Forest Owner Behavior: A Scenario Study from a Region in Southern Sweden

Lodin, Isak; Eriksson, Ljusk Ola; Forsell, Nicklas; Korosuo, Anu

Abstract

This study investigates the need for change of current forest management approaches in a southern Swedish region within the context of future climate change mitigation through empirically derived projections, rather than forest management according to silvicultural guidelines. Scenarios indicate that climate change mitigation will increase global wood demand. This might call for adjustments of well-established management approaches. This study investigates to what extent increasing wood demands in three climate change mitigation scenarios can be satisfied with current forest management approaches of different intensities in a southern Swedish region. Forest management practices in Kronoberg County were mapped through interviews, statistics, and desk research and were translated into five different management strategies with different intensities regulating management at the property level. The consequences of current practices, as well as their intensification, were analyzed with the Heureka Planwise forest planning system in combination with a specially developed forest owner decision simulator. Projections were done over a 100-year period under three climate change mitigation scenarios developed with the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIUM). Current management practices could meet scenario demands during the first 20 years. This was followed by a shortage of wood during two periods in all scenarios unless rotations were reduced. In a longer timeframe, the wood demands were projected to be easily satisfied in the less ambitious climate change mitigation scenarios. In contrast, the demand in the ambitious mitigation scenario could not be met with current management practices, not even if all owners managed their production forests at the intensive extreme of current management approaches. The climate change mitigation scenarios provide very different trajectories with respect to future drivers of forest management. Our results indicate that with less ambitious mitigation efforts, the relatively intensive practices in the study region can be softened while ambitious mitigation might push for further intensification.

Keywords

climate change mitigation scenarios; wood demand; forest management; small-scale forest owners; management strategies; forest owner behavior; decision support systems

Published in

Forests
2020, volume: 11, number: 3, article number: 346
Publisher: MDPI

Authors' information

Lodin, Isak
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre
Eriksson Ljusk, Ola (Eriksson, Ola)
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Forest Resource Management
Forsell, Nicklas
Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA
Korosuo, Anu
Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG13 Climate action

UKÄ Subject classification

Forest Science
Business Administration

Publication Identifiers

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/f11030346

URI (permanent link to this page)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/106428