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Review article - Peer-reviewed, 2021

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Tornetrask case study

Pascual, Didac; Akerman, Jonas; Becher, Marina; Callaghan, Terry V.; Christensen, Torben R.; Dorrepaal, Ellen; Emanuelsson, Urban; Giesler, Reiner; Hammarlund, Dan; Hanna, Edward; Hofgaard, Annika; Jin, Hongxiao; Johansson, Cecilia; Jonasson, Christer; Klaminder, Jonatan; Karlsson, Jan; Lundin, Erik; Michelsen, Anders; Olefeldt, David; Persson, Andreas;
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Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Tornetrask area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Tornetrask area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Tornetrask area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.


Abiotic drivers; Arctic and subarctic; Biotic drivers; Ecosystem change; Research priorities

Published in

AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment
2021, volume: 50, number: 2, pages: 375-392
Publisher: SPRINGER

Authors' information

Pascual, Didac
Lund University
Akerman, Jonas
Lund University
Becher, Marina
Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU)
Callaghan, Terry V.
University of Sheffield
Christensen, Torben R.
Aarhus University
Dorrepaal, Ellen
Umea University
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Swedish Biodiversity Centre
Giesler, Reiner
Umea University
Hammarlund, Dan
Lund University
Hanna, Edward
University of Lincoln
Hofgaard, Annika
Norwegian Institute Nature Research
Jin, Hongxiao
Lund University
Johansson, Cecilia
Uppsala University
Jonasson, Christer
Uppsala University
Klaminder, Jonatan
Umea University
Karlsson, Jan
Umea University
Lundin, Erik
Lulea University of Technology
Michelsen, Anders
University of Copenhagen
Olefeldt, David
University of Alberta
Persson, Andreas
Lund University
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Sustainable Development Goals

SDG15 Life on land
SDG13 Climate action

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