Correcting Bias in Survival Probabilities for Partially Monitored Populations via Integrated Models

Abstract

We provide an integrated capture-recapture-recovery framework for partially monitored populations. In these studies, live resightings are only observable at a set of monitored locations, so that if an individual leaves these specific locations, they become unavailable for capture. Additional ring-recovery data reduce the corresponding bias obtained in the survival probability estimates from capture-recapture data due to the confounding with colony dispersal. We derive an explicit efficient likelihood expression for the integrated capture-recapture-recovery data, and state the associated sufficient statistics. We demonstrate the significant improvements in the estimation of the survival probabilities using the integrated approach for a colony of guillemots (Uria aalge), where we additionally specify a hierarchical approach to deal with low sample size over the early period of the study.Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Keywords

Bias; Capture-recapture-recovery data; Hierarchical model; Partial monitoring

Published in

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics
2021, Publisher: SPRINGER

SLU Authors

• Hentati Sundberg, Jonas

  • Department of Aquatic Resources (SLU Aqua), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Probability Theory and Statistics
Ecology


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-020-00423-1

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/110357