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Joint NAFO\ICES Pandalus Assessment Working Group (NIPAG)

Bergenius, Mikaela; Ritzau Eigaard, Ole; Orio, Alessandro; Søvik, Guldborg; Ulmestrand, Mats


The NAFO/ICES Pandalus Assessment Group (NIPAG), met to assess the Pandalus stock in divi-sions 3a and 4a east. The objective was to assess stock status and to draft advice according to the current EU and Norway Long-term Management Strategy (LTMS). The LTMS requires ICES to provide both an update in-year TAC advice for 2021 and an initial TAC advice for the first two quarters of 2022.
The length-based Stock Synthesis (SS3) statistical framework was used to assess status of the stock based on updated input data (commercial catches for 2020 and survey catches from January 2021). The assessment demonstrated that the fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY and that spawning–stock size is below MSY Btrigger and between Bpa and Blim.
In accordance with the LTMS reference points and Harvest Control Rules, NIPAG advises that catches in 2021 should be no more than 7166 tonnes, and that catches for the first two quarters of 2022 should be no more than 5554 tonnes. This corresponds to an 18% reduction of the initial catch advice for 2021. This change is partly explained by the realized catches in 2020 being higher than the advised catches (9226 tonnes realized, compared to 8736 tonnes advised) due to discard-ing (285 tonnes) and lack of correction for loss in weight due to on-board boiling (533 tonnes). The preliminary advised catch for 2022 is 52% larger than the advised catch for 2021 mainly because the 2020 and 2021 year classes are estimated to be higher than the 2019 year class.
SS3 model diagnostics of the assessment did not indicate any issues with the model fit. There is a positive retrospective bias in SSB and recruitment, and a negative retrospective bias in F, but these are all within the acceptable range (Mohns Rho threshold values) of requiring no action.

Published in

ICES scientific reports
2021, number: 3:22
Publisher: International Council for the Exploration of the Sea