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Research article - Peer-reviewed, 2021

Costs and equity of uncertain greenhouse gas reductions-fuel, food and negative emissions in Sweden

Gren, Ing-Marie; Tirkaso, Wondmagegn


Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by reduction of fuel and food consumption and by implementation of negative emissions (such as forest carbon sequestration and carbon capture and storage) has been suggested in both scientific literature and practice, but there exist no calculations of the cost efficient combination of these measures. One challenge for calculations is the uncertainty in reductions of GHG, in particular for negative emissions, depending on e.g. stochastic weather conditions. This paper develops a static model with probabilistic emission constraints to calculate cost efficient emission reductions in the transportation (gasoline and diesel) and food (meat and dairy products) sectors combined with negative emission (carbon sequestration and carbon capture and storage technologies) creation in Sweden under uncertainty. The results show that emission reductions in fuel and food consumption are relatively expensive, and that carbon sequestration are relatively low cost measures. We also show that the regional effects at the county level are regressive, that is, that relatively poor counties will carry large cost burdens in the cost efficient solutions and that this effect is increased when negative emissions are included but decreased when uncertainty is considered.


GHG emissions; Cost efficiency; Equity; Transports; Food; Negative emissions; Uncertainty; Sweden

Published in

Energy Economics
2021, volume: 104, article number: 105638
Publisher: ELSEVIER

Authors' information

Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics
Tafesse Tirkaso, Wondmagegn (Tafesse Tirkaso, Wondmagegn)
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG7 Affordable and clean energy
SDG13 Climate action

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