Study region: Fårö island, part of Region Gotland, Sweden.

Study focus: Despite its importa"> Impacts of future climate on local water supply and demand – A socio-hydrological case study in the Nordic region Skip to main content

SLU publication database (SLUpub)

Research article2022Peer reviewedOpen access

Impacts of future climate on local water supply and demand – A socio-hydrological case study in the Nordic region

Lindqvist, Andreas Nicolaidis; Fornell, Rickard; Prade, Thomas; Khalil, Sammar; Tufvesson, Linda; Kopainsky, Birgit

Abstract

AnkareStudy region: Fårö island, part of Region Gotland, Sweden.

Study focus: Despite its importance for proactive planning and management, understanding of how future climate and socioeconomic trends may interact to influence water supply and demand at sub-regional scale remains limited for the Nordic region. We aim to close this knowledge gap by developing a combined social and hydrological simulation model for Fårö island in the Baltic Sea. We use multivariate Monte Carlo simulations to explore the effects of future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on local groundwater supplies, and subsequent impacts on the housing sector, tourism sector, and municipal water supply system in the period 2020–2050.

New hydrological insights for the region: Our results suggest that groundwater storage will remain critically low in the coming 30 years, with a 60–70% probability of the groundwater head falling to lower levels than experienced in the past 60 years. Low water availability and widespread saltwater intrusion will constrain housing and tourism development by up to 11% and 30% respectively. To sustain growth, the tourist sector will become increasingly reliant on water from private wells, and supplementary water deliveries from neighboring regions will be required to meet water demand on the municipal grid.

Keywords

Climate change; Groundwater; Water scarcity; System Dynamics; Socioeconomic impact

Published in

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
2022, Volume: 41, article number: 101066

      SLU Authors

          • Sustainable Development Goals

          Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
          Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation
          Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
          Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

          UKÄ Subject classification

          Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

          Publication identifier

          DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101066

          Permanent link to this page (URI)

          https://res.slu.se/id/publ/116618