Statistical analysis of possible trends for extreme floods in northern Sweden

Abstract

With ongoing climate change, analysis of trends in maximum annual daily river flow is of interest. Flow magnitude and timing during the year were investigated in this study. Observations from 11 unregulated rivers in northern Sweden were analysed, using extreme-value distributions with time-dependent parameters. The Mann-Kendall test was used to investigate possible trends. The extreme-value statistics revealed no significant trends for the stations considered, but the Mann-Kendall test showed a significant upward trend for some stations. For timing of maximum flow (day of the year), the Mann-Kendall test revealed significant downward trends for two stations (with the longest records). This implies that the day of the maximum flow is occurring earlier in the year in northern Sweden.

Keywords

extreme values; GEV distribution; river discharge; stationarity; trend detection

Published in

River Research and Applications
2022, Volume: 38, number: 6, pages: 1041-1050 Publisher: WILEY

SLU Authors

• Rydén, Jesper

  • Department of Energy and Technology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Water Engineering


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3980

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/117161