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Review article2023Peer reviewedOpen access

Modeling plant diseases under climate change: evolutionary perspectives

Yang, Li -Na; Ren, Maozhi; Zhan, Jiasui


Infectious plant diseases are a major threat to global agricultural productivity, economic development, and ecological integrity. There is widespread concern that these social and natural disasters caused by infectious plant diseases may escalate with climate change and computer modeling offers a unique opportu-nity to address this concern. Here, we analyze the intrinsic problems associated with current modeling strategies and highlight the need to integrate evolutionary principles into polytrophic, eco-evolutionary frameworks to improve predictions. We particularly discuss how evolutionary shifts in functional trade-offs, relative adaptability between plants and pathogens, ecosystems, and climate preferences induced by climate change may feedback to future plant disease epidemics and how technological advances can facilitate the generation and integration of this relevant knowledge for better modeling predictions.

Published in

Trends in Plant Science
2023, Volume: 28, number: 5, pages: 519-526

    Sustainable Development Goals

    Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

    UKÄ Subject classification

    Agricultural Science
    Climate Research

    Publication identifier


    Permanent link to this page (URI)