Pulp and paper in the ASEAN region : an analysis of development potential up to the year 2000
The development potential of the pulp and paper industries sector of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was analysed by the Pulp and Paper Industries Development Programme of FA0 in two stages: an indicative investigation in 1977 and a more intensive analysis in 1978-79. The 1978-79 analysis resulted in a decision by the econonmic ministers of ASEAN to implement the next investigative phase: that of feasibility studies. The approach to the analysis and subsequent strategy development was technical/political. This required that political aspirations and priorities by ASEAN member countries and the Association as a whole were considered in the selection of scenarios to be considered for evaluation and that the final choice of strategy was politically based. The analysis was made with the help of a linear/integer programming model designed to derive optimal allocation of paper manufacturing activities, geographically as well as over time. This allocation involved resource utilization, industry location, industry type and size, choice among optional manufacturing processes and product qualities, trade with non-ASEAN countries and intra-ASEAN product distribution. The results of the analysis indicate that ASEAN has a cost competitive advantage which allows the Association to manufacture and supply up to 90 percent of the projected internal requirement of the major grades of industrial and cultural papers in competition with the world market, without fiscal protection of the industry. All member countries of the Association, except Singapore, who has limited raw material resources, have a role to play in this intra-ASEAN supply of paper. An attempt to critically evaluate the approach and assess the implementability of the development strategy was made.
Pulp; paper manufacturing; ASEAN region; analysis
Studia Forestalia Suecica
Publisher: College of Forestry, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
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