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Research article2024Peer reviewedOpen access

Estimation of return levels with long return periods for extreme sea levels by the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate method

Rydén, Jesper

Abstract

Estimation of so-called return levels for environmental extremes is of importance for risk assessment. A particular challenge is to find estimates corresponding to long return periods, as uncertainties in the form of confidence intervals became too wide for practical use when applying conventional methodology where large portions of data are not used. A recently proposed technique, the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate (ACER), makes effective use of all available data. For risk analysis related to nuclear infrastructure, usually located along a coastline, extreme sea levels are of concern. We demonstrate, for measurements of the sea level along the Swedish coast at locations close to nuclear power plants, that the methodology results in considerably shorter confidence intervals compared to conventional approaches.

Keywords

extreme values; GEV distribution; ACER method; return levels; sea level

Published in

GeoHazards
2024, Volume: 5, number: 1, pages: 166-175

    UKÄ Subject classification

    Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
    Probability Theory and Statistics

    Publication identifier

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010008

    Permanent link to this page (URI)

    https://res.slu.se/id/publ/128472