Ecke, Frauke
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
- University of Helsinki
Research article2024Peer reviewedOpen access
Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?
Gauthier, Gilles; Ehrich, Dorothee; Belke-Brea, Maria; Domine, Florent; Alisauskas, Ray; Clark, Karin; Ecke, Frauke; Eide, Nina E.; Framstad, Erik; Frandsen, Jay; Gilg, Olivier; Henttonen, Heikki; Hornfeldt, Birger; Kataev, Gennadiy D.; Menyushina, Irina E.; Oksanen, Lauri; Oksanen, Tarja; Olofsson, Johan; Samelius, Gustaf; Sittler, Benoit;
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Abstract
Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.
Keywords
population dynamics; small mammals; transient dynamics; climate warming; Arctic tundra; melt-freeze events
Published in
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
2024, Volume: 291, number: 2016, article number: 20232361
Publisher: ROYAL SOC
Hörnfeldt, Birger
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
SLU Authors
UKÄ Subject classification
Ecology
Publication identifier
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2361
Permanent link to this page (URI)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/128617