Assessing the effects of transition to low-carbon electricity generation: A dynamic computable general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy

Abstract

center dot A DCGE model has been applied to simulate the macroeconomic effects of low-carbon strategies, including increases in renewable energy and energy efficiency.center dot By using low-carbon strategies in the electricity sector, the economic growth rate will be positive.center dot The renewable energy strategy has better economic effects, while in terms of the environment, energy efficiency seems to be more appropriate.The electricity sector holds significant potential for global carbon reduction, making it a pivotal player in transitioning towards low-carbon economies. The surging demand for electricity, coupled with mounting concerns about climate change, underscores the imperative to replace outdated and inefficient electricity generation methods with modern alternatives that enhance environmental quality and energy security. In Iran, where the electricity sector accounts for over 30% of the nation's CO2 emissions, this study employs a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model to analyze the impacts of applying two low-carbon strategies: enhancing efficiency and expanding renewable energy use in electricity generation. Our findings indicate positive economic growth under both scenarios, accompanied by reduced demand for fossil fuels and increased gas and oil exports. Furthermore, CO2 emissions decrease owing to fossil fuel savings in both cases. Notably, a 10% increase in renewable energy demonstrates superior economic effects, boosting GDP by 3.41% in the tenth year, compared to 2.36% under the enhanced efficiency scenario. Conversely, improving energy efficiency appears more environmentally favorable, significantly reducing fossil fuel demand and carbon emissions by up to 0.2% over the next decade, despite population growth.

Keywords

carbon dioxide; environmental impact; fossil fuel; renewable; sustainability

Published in

MRS Energy & Sustainability
2024,

SLU Authors

• Martinez Cruz, Adan

  • Department of Forest Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Economics


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1557/s43581-024-00103-4

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/131279