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Research article2024Peer reviewedOpen access

Beyond the present: How climate change is relevant to pest risk analysis

Szyniszewska, Anna M.; Akrivou, Antigoni; Björklund, Niklas; et al.

Abstract

Climate change is widely recognized as a critical global challenge with far-reachingconsequences. It affects pest species by altering their population dynamics,actual and potential distribution areas, as well as interactions with their hostsand natural enemies. Climate change thus has potentially important implicationsfor multiple areas of the pest risk analysis (PRA) process. The importance ofincluding climate change in PRA may vary depending on the climatic context ofthe PRA area in relation to the speed of climate change. If climatic changes withinthe time horizon of interest are minimal, their potential impact on pest risk isreduced accordingly. For PRAs in a changing climate, we need to be concernedwith how future climates could alter our assessment of the risks currently posedby each pest species. While climate can influence the distribution and abundanceof pests and hosts alike, its significance will vary depending on the situation. Theinclusion of climate change within a PRA also presents challenges. The dynamicnature of climate change, with its complex interactions and uncertainties, canmake it difficult to predict and assess the future risks posed by pests accurately.Uncertainties related to future predictions may be much greater than the potentialeffects associated with climate change and species’ responses to it. This paperoutlines examples of the effects of climate change on hosts and different groupsof pests, including invertebrates, pathogens, weeds and vector species. The aim isto review the opportunities and challenges of incorporating climate change intoPRA, offering insights for a variety of stakeholders including policymakers onthis topic.

Published in

EPPO Bulletin
2024, Volume: 54, number: S1, pages: 20-37