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Research article2024Peer reviewedOpen access

Prediction of deoxynivalenol contamination in spring oats in Sweden using explainable artificial intelligence

Wang, X.; Borjesson, T.; Wetterlind, J.; van der Fels-klerx, H. J.

Abstract

Weather conditions and agronomical factors are known to affect Fusarium spp. growth and ultimately deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination in oat. This study aimed to develop predictive models for the contamination of spring oat at harvest with DON on a regional basis in Sweden using machine-learning algorithms. Three models were developed as regional risk-assessment tools for farmers, crop collectors, and food safety inspectors, respectively. Data included: weather data from different oat growing periods, agronomical data, site-specific data, and DON contamination data from the previous year. Results showed that: (1) RF models were able to predict DON contamination at harvest with a total classification accuracy of minimal 0.72; (2) good predictions could already be made in June; (3) rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed in different oat growing stages, followed by crop variety and elevation were the most important features for predicting DON contamination in spring oats at harvest.

Published in

npj Science of Food
2024, Volume: 8, number: 1, article number: 75Publisher: NATURE PORTFOLIO

    UKÄ Subject classification

    Agricultural Science
    Food Science
    Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences

    Publication identifier

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41538-024-00310-w

    Permanent link to this page (URI)

    https://res.slu.se/id/publ/132903