Abstract

In this report significant models of the prognosis for private forest owner’s behaviour are presented, models regarding plantation, pre-commercial and commercial thinning as well as final cut. The conveyance of real estate, and the importance of changes in decision behaviour, appeared to be difficult to describe, since the material of transactions with legal ratifications (investigated in the study) only partially embraces the total number of transactions. The results of a survey of forest owners (1200 replies), of a data-base of the mentioned transactions with legal ratifications (5590 transactions from 1999 until 2007), and of two statistical sources of census of forest owners as well as interviews with estate agents, valuers of estates as well as interviews of forest owners are sumarised below. Models for prognosis of forest activity decisions The owners of large forest estates are in general more active per hectare forest area than the owners of small ones. At the same time the activity on forest estates in southern Sweden is greater compared with those in the north, in spite of the fact that the northern forest estates are larger on average than those in the south. The state of the forest (estimated by kNN’s satellite-based data) expressed as standing volume per hectare forest area and the area-weighted share of forest older than 20 years has a positive connection to the cut in thinning and final cut. Young forest owners are generally more active in all forest operations than older forest owners. One variable, time duration of possession, shows a varying relation to activity in the meaning that the duration of possession in the period 0-10 years are more active than the others and those owners with a very long duration of possession increase their activity with time. Men are more active in all operations than women. A nuanced interpretation is that the latter group prefers commercial thinning and the former final cut. If the owner lives outside the county where the estate is situated, this is negative for operations such as pre-commercial and commercial thinning and sometimes for final cut. Thinning is much less practiced in the north of Sweden. Planting operations can be described by about the same variables as final cut. For plantation (sometimes) and for pre-commercial thinning another variable is actual, the form of conveyance (inheritance or purchase), not relevant for the other operations. Buyers of forest estates are more diligent in silviculture operations than the other forms of conveyance. Among factors describing external co-variation, the possession of a forest management plan, is positively related to all the investigated forest operations. The same strong co-variation is at hand between the engagement of an entrepreneur and the degree of activity in corresponding operations. Almost the same strength in the relation is found between the degree of activity on the one hand and the level of prices, costs as well as subsidies on the other. Counselling, debate and information are of some importance, at least for pre-commercial thinning. The state of the forest as it is conceived by the forest owner (in contrast to the kNN- based forest state above) is of importance for the planting activities, and final cut and to some degree for thinning. This influence seems, at least to some extent, to exist parallel with the kNN based forest state. Comparison with public cut statistics (Year-book of forest statistics) shows that the underlying survey gives a pronounced underestimation of volume cut, something to be taken into account when applying the presented functions. The study of conveyances of forest estates It was found that the data-base of transactions (conveyances) with legal ratifications only partially embraces all transaction events in Sweden. Consequently it is not possible to formulate realistic models for changes of forest owner structure over time. The conveyance of a forest estate follows old traditions but with modifications, which gradually will change the structure of forest owners markedly. The following was found from the material in the study, however it does not give the complete picture. Men overall acquire estates from women but this strong effect is probably neutralized by other tendencies in transactions without legal ratifications and consequently not in the material of this study. Men dominate in purchases of estates from persons outside the family, while women often acquire estates in the form of inheritance or bequest. When a forest estate is disposed of, the former owner is on average 63 years with a tendency to increase over time, while the new owner maintains an average of 45 years. Among the new owners there is a dominance of men chosen as representing the owners if they are two. Probably these two owners are a man and his wife, but it also may be i.e. two brothers or sisters. When more than two owners dispose of their estate (usually two siblings) the distribution of owner representation of men and women are equal. Far more women dispose of estates than they acquire estates according to this data base, which reasonably must be counteracted by transactions without legal ratifications and as a consequence not involved in this actual register, i.e. when the estate shifts its owner after a partner dies. A forest estate is on average acquired by fewer people than the number which disposes of it. Estates acquired by one person are less frequent than the number of one person disposals. The share of owners living outside the municipality where the estate is situated is increasing when the estate is transferred to another owner. The share of inheritance/bequest out of the legally ratified transactions is .40 to .46. Some increase of this share was connected to the repeal of taxes on inheritance/bequest. Studies of statistical sources of census indicate that the sum of forest area in estates with less than 100 hectares of forest is decreasing, while the corresponding area in estates with more than 100 hectares increases. The flow of forest area between these size groups is, over two decades, some hundreds of thousands of hectares. A successively higher share of the forest area is managed in more large-scaled companies, but the arithmetic mean of the forest area of the average forest company (estate) is unchanged, since areas are transferred between companies, but the companies still exist. The survey study embracing an area-weighted selection of forest estates contain questions giving a time-perspective of the ownership, is however difficult to interpret. With increasing time of possession, the ownership by men will rise. This may be due to the fact that women in increasing degree are noted as responsible owners in modern acquisitions. Another explanation is that women own their estates a shorter time than men. The non-family purchases (most often by men) seem to have increased with time. By increasing possession time the share of owners living within the community of the estate increases, interpreted as an increase of acquisition by persons living outside the estate community by time. Interviews with estate agents and estate valuers as well as with persons, active in the transfer of estates over the last three years, confirm most of the conclusions above. Moreover, they show that great consideration is taken to possibilities for education, external and social conditions at the time of a decision to dispose or acquire a forest estate. These functions will, because of urban processes, move away from the forest regions where the forest estates are often situated, whilst the proportion of owners living outside the community of the estate increases. The interviews indicate an increased transfer of estates back to people living near the estates. A frequent and maybe increasing group of people are part-owners of estates. The earlier normal ambition, to buy out sibblings, is no longer evident, because all have external living and occupation. An often mentioned forest category with money to spend, has an external occupation and is living not far from the estate. In this group there is a potential for size rationalization of forestry. Requirements for the traditional forest owner group to dominate among owner categories, the one staying at home, is the access to social service, external occupation and social relations

Keywords

Private owned forestry; forest management; forest treatment; decision models for private forest owners; survey study; conveyance of forest estate; prognosis of forest activity; decision behaviour

Published in

Rapport (SLU, Institutionen för skogens produkter)
2008, number: 11
Publisher: SLU/Skogens produkter

SLU Authors

• Eriksson, Lennart

  • Department of Forest Products, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Forest Science


Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/19765