Modelling CAP reform and land abandonment in the European Union with a focus on Germany

Abstract

The increasing integration of agriculture in the energy sector has led to a vivid debate about induced land-use change in Europe and elsewhere. Concerns are raised that further reform steps of the Common Agriculture Policy or a WTO compromise might lead to land abandonment in marginal regions of Europe. Quantitative analysis of these questions requires simultaneously looking at price and quantities changes in agricultural markets and the related changes in agricultural land use. In order to capture the essential mechanism of land dynamics while drawing on existing work in that field both regarding methodology and parameterization, an existing agricultural sector model (CAPRI) was augmented with a three tier land allocation model with separability between tiers. The three tier land supply and transformation system makes it possible to simulate land leaving (and entering) agriculture as well as the transformation between arable and grass land in response to relative price changes. The augmented model is linked with the spatial model Dyna-CLUE, which disaggregates results to square kilometres, we attempt to identify the particular regions of Germany that are particularly sensitive to agricultural land abandonment. Two scenarios are analysed. In the first scenario, the entire "first pillar", containing the single farm payments, is abolished. The second scenario represents a successful new world trade agreement (Doha round) similar to the recent proposals by the EU

Conference

84th Agricultural Economics Society Annual Conference

SLU Authors

• Jansson, Torbjörn

  • Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Landscape Architecture
Environmental Sciences and Nature Conservation
Agricultural Science

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/30487