A method for inferring extinction based on sighting records that change in frequency over time

Abstract

It is a very important, but also a very difficult task, to establish how long a certain species has to remain unregistered before we can declare it extinct. The wrong assumption regarding species extinction could result in a type I or type II statistical error, leading to inappropriate management actions or even species extinction. Recent development of the methods for inferring the threat of extinction, when the only available information is a record of sightings, has enabled a quantitative approach to the problem. In our study we present an index that infers extinction probability based on trends in sighting intervals. Our study comprises a description of the sighting trend index, a sensitivity analysis and an application of the index to the sighting record of the black-footed ferret Mustela nigripes. The main advantage of this method could be its sensitivity to changes in sighting frequency within the sighting record. However, further testing of the method on different data sets could be important for gaining additional knowledge regarding its adequate application in the field of conservation biology

Keywords

black-footed ferret; extinction probability; modelling; Mustela nigripes

Published in

Wildlife Biology
2010, volume: 16, number: 3, pages: 267-275

SLU Authors

• Ebenhard, Torbjörn

  • Department of Urban and Rural Development, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Associated SLU-program

SLU Swedish Biodiversity Centre

Global goals (SDG)

SDG15 Life on land

UKÄ Subject classification

Environmental Sciences and Nature Conservation

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.2981/09-044

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/31146