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Research article2004

Climate change and forestry in Sweden -- a literature review

Sonesson, Johan; Eriksson, Hillevi; Rosén, Kaj; Rummukainen, Markku; Bergh, Johan; Björkman, Christer; Blennow, Kristina; Linder, Sune; Stenlid, Jan

Abstract

The scope of the study was to review the relevant literature regarding the impact of climate change on forestry in Sweden, to synthesise current knowledge, to draw conclusions on likely effects of climate change and to identify areas in which further research and knowledge are required. We have limited the study to the effects over short and medium time spans (20–100 years), focussing on direct climatic effects on the trees, and indirect effects mediated by the climatic impact on soils, herbivores, insects, pests and diseases. We have largely ignored other aspects of forests and climate change. This literature review has revealed major deficiencies in our knowledge about the effects that expected climate change will have on the forest ecosystems. For instance, the potential effects of climatic changes on the structure and processes of forest ecosystems are even less certain than the likely nature and magnitude of the climatic changes per se. However, the most likely effects of climate change can be predicted. They generally include an increase in potential biomass production, possibilities to grow new species commercially and increased risk of several kinds of damage. Climate change appears to offer new opportunities to forestry, while increasing the risk of calamities. This calls for radical approaches to both forest- and riskmanagement. The reviewed literature contains indications that a better understanding of the links between climate, the forest and forestry is required. However, the study also identified three major obstacles that need to be overcome in order to improve our understanding of the issues, risks and possibilities associated with the potential impact of continued climate change on forests and forestry: • Studies undertaken so far have generally addressed some specific aspect of the overall forestry/forest system, instead of adopting a more integrated approach in which the system as a whole and various feedback mechanisms are considered. • The studies published so far differ in their choices of climate change scenarios. Thus, the findings refer to different shifts in temperatures, precipitation and other climate variables, making it difficult to collate and integrate the findings. • The transience of the anticipated climate changes have not been included in the studies, as they typically refer to impacts under a specific, static, new climatic regime. However, instead of switching instantaneously to a new climatic regime sometime in the future, the forest and forestry will K. Skogs-o. Lantbr.akad. Tidskr. 143:18, 2004 Climate change and forestry in Sweden probably face continuous, ongoing changes in climate, implying that conditions will constantly change within a typical treecrop rotation, and from one rotation to the next. Future research on the effects of climate change on forestry and forest ecosystems has to take account of a broad spectrum of scientific fields, but a multidisciplinary scientific approach will probably be essential

Published in

Kungl. Skogs- och Lantbruksakademiens tidskrift (KSLAT)
2004, Volume: 143, number: 18, pages: 1-42
ISBN: 91-89379-94-2