Research article - Peer-reviewed, 2011
Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary
Gardmark, Anna; Nielsen, Anders; Floeter, Jens; Moellmann, ChristianAbstract
Precautionary management for fish stocks in need of recovery requires that likely stock increases can be distinguished from model artefacts and that the uncertainty of stock status can be handled. Yet, ICES stock assessments are predominantly deterministic and many EC management plans are designed for deterministic advice. Using the eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) stock as an example, we show how deterministic scientific advice can lead to illusive certainty of a rapid stock recovery and management decisions taken in unawareness of large uncertainties in stock status. By (i) performing sensitivity analyses of key assessment model assumptions, (ii) quantifying the uncertainty of the estimates due to data uncertainty, and (iii) developing alternative stock and ecosystem indicators, we demonstrate that estimates of recent fishing mortality and recruitment of this stock were highly uncertain and show that these uncertainties are crucial when combined with management plans based on fixed reference points of fishing mortality. We therefore call for fisheries management that does not neglect uncertainty. To this end, we outline a four-step approach to handle uncertainty of stock status in advice and management. We argue that it is time to use these four steps towards an ecosystem- based approach to fisheries managementKeywords
advice; assessment; Baltic Sea; cod; ecosystem-based; ecosystem indicator; fisheries management; stock recovery; uncertaintyPublished in
ICES Journal of Marine Science2011, volume: 68, number: 1, pages: 212-220
Authors' information
Swedish Board of Fisheries
Nielsen, Anders
No organisation
Floeter, Jens
Möllmann, Christian
UKÄ Subject classification
Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use
Fish and Aquacultural Science
Publication Identifiers
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq158
URI (permanent link to this page)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/37090