Abstract

A new system is presented for predicting tree mortality, in order to improve Swedish long-term forest planning. A three-step approach was used, which consists of (I) estimating the probability of mortality on a sample plot; (II) quantifying the mortality in terms of proportion of basal area., and (III) distributing the mortality among individual trees. The system predicts the mortality for 5 yr periods. Data from permanent sample plots of the Swedish National Forest Inventory were used. Independent variables used for steps I and II were specific to site, stand and plot characteristics. In the step III models, which were tree-species specific. competition indices were also included. Logistic regression was used for steps I and III models, while linear regression was used for the step II models. A fair performance of the functions was observed, although mortality is a highly stochastic process. In applications, random simulation in all steps can mimic this.

Keywords

dead trees; forest management; natural tree mortality; planning

Published in

Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research
2001, Volume: 16, number: 5, pages: 455-466

SLU Authors

• Fridman, Jonas

  • Department of Forest Resource Management and Geomatics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Ståhl, Göran

  • Department of Forest Resource Management and Geomatics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Forest Science


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02827580152632856

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/41049