Schroeder, Martin
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Abstract
Spruce bark beetle outbreaks are common in Norway spruce forests following windstorm damage, due to ample availability of brood material. The realization of an outbreak depends on factors regulating the Ips typographus population dynamics, such as weather conditions and salvage cutting. In this study, we take an ecosystem modelling approach to analyse the influence of multiple environmental factors on the risk for I. typographus outbreaks. Model calculations of I. typographus phenology and population dynamics as a function of weather and brood tree availability were developed and implemented in the LPJ-GUESS ecosystem modelling framework. The model simulations were driven by gridded climate data covering Sweden with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees and a daily temporal resolution. Records on storm damage and I. typographus outbreak periods in Sweden for the period of 1960-2009 were used for model evaluation, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the model behaviour. The model simulations replicated the observed pattern in outbreak frequency, being more common in southern and central Sweden than in northern Sweden. A warmer climate allowing for more than one generation per year can increase the risk for attacks on living trees. The effect of countermeasures, aiming at either reduce the availability of brood material or the I. typographus population size, is dependent on a non-linear relation between I. typographus attack density and reproductive success. The sensitivity analysis indicated a major reduction in the risk of attacks on living trees by timely salvage cutting and cutting of infested trees. Knowledge uncertainties associated with attacks on standing trees, i.e. factors influencing tree defence capacity and I. typographus reproductive success, should be further addressed. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Climate change; Forest management; LPJ-GUESS; Risk analysis
Published in
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
2012, volume: 166, pages: 188-200
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
SLU Authors
Associated SLU-program
SLU Future Forests
Global goals (SDG)
UKÄ Subject classification
Forest Science
Ecology
Publication identifier
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012
Permanent link to this page (URI)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/41715