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Research article2013Peer reviewed

Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Lenoir, Jonathan; Graae, Bente Jessen; Aarrestad, Per Arild; Alsos, Inger Greve; Armbruster, W Scott; Austrheim, Gunnar; Bergendorff, Claes; Birks, H J B; Bråthen, Kari Anne; Brunet, Jörg; Bruun, Hans Henrik; Dahlberg, Carl Johan; Decocq, G; Diekmann, M.; Dynesius, Mats; Ejrnaes, Rasmus; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Hylander, Kristoffer; Klanderud, Kari; Luoto, Miska;
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Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500km2) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m2 units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km2 units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km2 units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 4672% of variation in LmT and 9296% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km2 units peaked at 6065 degrees N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 degrees C (SD=0.84 degrees C) and 2.68 degrees C (SD=1.26 degrees C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km2 units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 degrees Ckm1) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 degrees Ckm1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km2 units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.


climate change; climatic heterogeneity; community-inferred temperature; Ellenberg indicator value; plant community; spatial heterogeneity; spatial scale; temperature; topoclimate; topography

Published in

Global Change Biology
2013, Volume: 19, number: 5, pages: 1470-1481 Publisher: WILEY-BLACKWELL

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      Sustainable Development Goals

      SDG13 Climate action

      UKÄ Subject classification

      Climate Research

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