Linking cod (Gadus morhua) and climate: investigating variability in Irish Sea cod recruitment

Abstract

How climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures interact to influence recruitment is a key factor in achieving sustainable resource management. However, the combined effects of these pressures can make it difficult to detect non-stationary interactions or shifts in the relationships with recruitment. Here we examine the links between climate and Irish Sea cod recruitment during a period of declining spawning stock biomass (SSB). Specifically, we test for a shift in the relationship between recruitment, SSB and climate by comparing an additive (generalized additive model, GAM) and non-additive threshold model (TGAM). The relationship between recruitment success, SSB and the climatic driver, sea surface temperature, was best described by the TGAM, with a threshold identified between recruitment and SSB at approximately 7900t. The analysis suggests a threshold shift in the relationship between recruitment and SSB in Irish Sea cod, with cod recruitment being more sensitive to climatic variability during the recent low SSB regime.

Keywords

climate; cod; Irish Sea; recruitment success; spawning stock biomass; threshold dynamics

Published in

Fisheries Oceanography
2014, volume: 23, number: 1, pages: 54-64

SLU Authors

• Cardinale, Massimiliano

  • Department of Aquatic Resources (SLU Aqua), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Bartolino, Valerio

  • Department of Aquatic Resources (SLU Aqua), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    
  • University of Gothenburg

Global goals (SDG)

SDG14 Life below water

UKÄ Subject classification

Fish and Aquacultural Science
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Publication identifier

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12043

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/50954