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Report, 2014

Cost-effective management of a eutrophicated sea in the presence of uncertain technological development and climate change

Gren, Ing-Marie; Lindqvist, Martin;

Abstract

We analyse effects of uncertain climate change and technological development on cost-effective abatement of nitrogen and phosphorus for a eutrophied sea. A dynamic model is developed which accounts for differences in the sea’s adjustment to the loads of the two nutrients, uncertainty in climate change effects with probabilistic constraints on nutrient pool targets, and uncertain technological development in a mean-variance framework. The analytical results show that introduction of uncertainty increases abatement costs but that the effect on marginal abatement cost differ for the two types of uncertainty. Marginal abatement cost is increased by technological uncertainty but decreased by the reduction in the risk discount of climate change uncertainties. It is also shown that abatement along the optimal time path is delayed by the introduction of technological uncertainty, but made earlier when considering climate change uncertainty. An application to the eutrophied Baltic Sea indicates that climate change and technological development can reduce total abatement cost by 1/3, but also increase it considerably when uncertainty is included.

Keywords

Cost-effectiveness; Eutrophication; Climate change; Technological development; Uncertainty; Baltic Sea

Published in

Working Paper Series / Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics

2014, number: 2014:01
Publisher: Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

Authors' information

Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics
Lindqvist, Martin
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics

UKÄ Subject classification

Economics

URI (permanent link to this page)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/51866