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Research article2014Peer reviewedOpen access

Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)

Lindegarth, Mats; Bergstrom, Ulf; Mattila, Johanna; Olenin, Sergej; Ollikainen, Markku; Downie, Anna-Leena; Sundblad, Goran; Bucas, Martynas; Gullstrom, Martin; Snickars, Martin; von Numers, Mikael; Svensson, J. Robin; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa

Abstract

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.

Keywords

Predictive mapping; Management scenarios; Benthic habitats; Economic valuation; Baltic Sea

Published in

AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment
2014, Volume: 43, number: 1, pages: 82-93
Publisher: SPRINGER

      SLU Authors

        Associated SLU-program

        Coastal and sea areas

        Sustainable Development Goals

        SDG14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
        SDG13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

        UKÄ Subject classification

        Ecology

        Publication identifier

        DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0479-2

        Permanent link to this page (URI)

        https://res.slu.se/id/publ/53521