Research article - Peer-reviewed, 2012
A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
Garedew, Efrem; Sandewall, Mats; Söderberg, UlfAbstract
The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households' income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.Keywords
Forest increase; Household income; Land-use; Land degradation; STELLA softwarePublished in
Environmental Management2012, volume: 49, number: 1, pages: 151-162
Publisher: SPRINGER
Authors' information
Garedew, Efrem
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Forest Resource Management
Garedew, Efrem
Hawasa University
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Forest Resource Management
Söderberg, Ulf
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Forest Resource Management
Sustainable Development Goals
SDG15 Life on land
UKÄ Subject classification
Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use
Forest Science
Publication Identifiers
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-011-9783-4
URI (permanent link to this page)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/56307