Abstract

5. Synthesis. Statements about the viability of populations should not be based on point estimates of log lambda(S). Instead, the full probability distribution of log lambda(S) should be used, which explicitly accounts for the hierarchically structured natural variability and uncertainty. This distribution allows estimating the risk for a population decline, or providing an estimate of the confidence in a statement about a decline. This quantitative information can be weighed against other interests. We expect this Bayesian approach to be especially useful in the viability analysis of natural populations experiencing environmental variability.

Keywords

bryophyte; climate; environmental stochasticity; hierarchical Bayesian model; plant population and community dynamics; plant-climate interactions; population viability; stochastic growth rate; uncertainty

Published in

Journal of Ecology
2012, Volume: 100, number: 2, pages: 499-507
Publisher: WILEY-BLACKWELL

SLU Authors

• Ruete, Alejandro

  • Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

• Snäll, Tord

  • Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01887.x

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/56356