Oni, Stephen
- Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
- Trent University
Research article2012Peer reviewed
Modelling the long term impact of climate change on the carbon budget of Lake Simcoe, Ontario using INCA-C
Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Molot, Lewis; Dillon, Peter
Abstract
This study presents a process-based model of dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) in catchments draining into Lake Simcoe, Ontario. INCA-C, the Integrated Catchment model for Carbon, incorporates carbon biogeochemical processes in a terrestrial system with hydrologic flow paths to simulate watershed wide [DOC]. The model successfully simulates present-day inter-annual and seasonal [DOC] dynamics in tributaries draining catchments with mixed or contrasting land cover in the Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW). The sensitivity of INCA-C to soil moisture, hydrologic controls and land uses within a watershed demonstrates its significance as a tool to explore pertinent environmental issues specific to the LSW. Projections of climate change under A1B and A2 SRES scenarios suggest a continuous monotonic increase in [DOC] in surface waters draining into Lake Simcoe. Large variations in seasonal DOC dynamics are predicted to occur during summer with a possibility of displacement of summer [DOC] maxima towards winter and a prolongation of summer (DOC] levels into the autumn. INCA-C also predicts possible increases in dissolved inorganic carbon in some tributaries with rising temperature suggesting increased CO2 emissions from rivers as climate changes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Climate change; Dissolved organic carbon; INCA-C; Lake Simcoe; Surface water quality; Climate downscaling
Published in
Science of the Total Environment
2012, volume: 414, pages: 387-403
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
SLU Authors
Futter, Martyn
- Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
- Trent University
- Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Global goals (SDG)
SDG6 Clean water and sanitation
SDG13 Climate action
UKÄ Subject classification
Fish and Aquacultural Science
Publication identifier
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.10.025
Permanent link to this page (URI)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/56459