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Research article - Peer-reviewed, 2012

Predicting silage maize yield and quality in Sweden as influenced by climate change and variability

Eckersten, Henrik; Herrmann, Antje; Kornher, Alois; Halling, Magnus; Sindhöj, Erik; Lewan, Elisabet; Eckersten, Henrik

Abstract

Forage quality assessments strongly influenced the assessments of harvest time and thereby the yield. Changes in simulated yield of the tested cultivars were high for the past climate, but relatively small under future climatic conditions due to earlier harvest caused by improved forage quality. By the end of the 21st century an appropriate fodder quality would be achieved every year in the south of Sweden, whereas in the middle of Sweden (60 degrees N) about 30% of the years would not be successful, even for the earliest cultivar. In the cast, increased water stress counteracted the positive effect of a prolonged growing season. It was concluded that adaptation of field experiments to model calibration requirements remains to be done, in order to enable extrapolation of observations from Swedish field trials to a changing future climate.

Keywords

Biomass; cultivar; dry matter content; simulation model; solar radiation; starch content; temperature; water; weather

Published in

Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section B - Soil and Plant Science
2012, Volume: 62, number: 2, pages: 151-165
Publisher: TAYLOR & FRANCIS AS