Abstract

We have combined a long-term hydrochemistry model (MAGIC) with a model that predicts short-term transient changes in hydrochemistry(pBDM) during hydrological events in order to improve the temporal resolution of retrospective analyses and future predictions of streamwater acidification. The model has been applied to a heavily impacted catchment in the Czech Republic. Spring flood acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), pH, and inorganic monomeric aluminum (Al(i)n(+)) were simulated for the years of 1860, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1965, and 1985, measured in 1999, and predicted for 2030 using two different emission control scenarios. If the emission reduction according to the current legislation scenario is implemented, the model predicts that the spring flood pH, ANC, and Al-i(n+), will recover close to the level of the 1950s by 2030. This will occur despite the annual average chemistry being far from having recovered to that level. The results suggest that the recovery of spring flood events is faster then the recovery of annual average chemistry and that much of what is won by further emission reduction will not be fully realized on an annual time scale

Published in

Environmental Science and Technology
2005, Volume: 39, number: 9, pages: 3197-3202
Publisher: AMER CHEMICAL SOC

SLU Authors

• Laudon, Hjalmar

  • Department of Forest Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1021/es0481575

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/5800