Di Corato, Luca
- Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Abstract
In this paper stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate land conversion decisions taken by a multitude of landholders under uncertainty about the value of environmental services and irreversible development. We study land conversion under competition on the market for agricultural products when voluntary and mandatory measures are combined by the Government to induce habitat conservation. We show that land conversion can be delayed by paying landholders for the provision of environmental services and by limiting the individual extent of developable land. It is found, instead, that the presence of ceilings on aggregate conversion may lead to runs which rapidly exhaust the targeted amount of land. We study the impact of uncertainty on the optimal conversion policy and discuss conversion dynamics under different policy scenarios on the basis of the relative long-run expected rate of deforestation. Interestingly, we show that uncertainty, even if it induces conversion postponement in the short-run, increases the average rate of deforestation and reduces expected time for total conversion in the long run. Finally, we illustrate our findings through some numerical simulations.
Keywords
Optimal stopping; Deforestation; Payments for environmental services; Natural resources management
Published in
Journal of Economics
2013, volume: 110, number: 1, pages: 45-82
Publisher: SPRINGER WIEN
SLU Authors
Global goals (SDG)
SDG15 Life on land
SDG17 Partnerships for the goals
UKÄ Subject classification
Economics
Publication identifier
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00712-013-0348-2
Permanent link to this page (URI)
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/60062