Abstract

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.

Keywords

Process-based modelling; Monitoring; Nitrogen; Phosphorus; Trends; Change points

Published in

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
2014, Volume: 186, number: 8, pages: 5135-5152
Publisher: SPRINGER

SLU Authors

• von Brömssen, Claudia

  • Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all


UKÄ Subject classification

Environmental Sciences
Probability Theory and Statistics


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-014-3765-y

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/61059