Abstract

Uncertainty in future climate projections is widely recognised, yet few impact model studies explore the implications of this uncertainty on catchment hydrological and biogeochemical responses. Here, we report a novel model chain using HBV, INCA-C and MyLake to simulate runoff, snow dynamics, ice cover, soil moisture, lake thermal stratification and in-lake DOC concentrations in Valkea-Kotinen, a headwater lake in a forest-covered boreal catchment. Impact response surfaces (IRSs) were constructed with 63 combinations of changes in temperature (-2 degrees C to +14 degrees C) and precipitation (-10% to +50%). Superimposing probabilistic projections of climate change onto the IRSs, we illustrate the uncertainty in impacts under projected climate change. Projected climate warming is likely to result in drier soils, shorter snow and ice periods, as well as earlier onset and longer duration of lake stratification. In contrast to earlier results, in-lake DOC concentrations are projected to decrease slightly (-6%), primarily due to decreased terrestrial runoff.

Published in

Boreal Environment Research
2014, Volume: 19, number: suppl. A, pages: 66-82
Publisher: FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INST

SLU Authors

• Futter, Martyn

  • Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Associated SLU-program

SLU Future Forests


UKÄ Subject classification

Climate Research
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources


Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/64211