Abstract

Bioenergy could contribute both to the reduction of greenhouse gases and to increased energy security, but the extent of this contribution strongly depends on the cost and potential of biomass resources. For Sweden, this study investigates how the implementation of policies for CO2reduction and for phase out of fossil fuels in road transport affect the future utilization of biomass, in the stationary energy system and in the transport sector, and its price. The analysis is based on the bottom-up, optimization MARKAL_Sweden model, which includes a comprehensive representation of the national energy system. For the analysis, the biomass supply representation of MARKAL_Sweden is updated and improved by the use of, e.g., forestry forecasting modeling and through construction of detailed biomass supply curves. A time horizon up to 2050 is applied. The results indicate a potential for significantly higher use of bioenergy. In the main analysis scenario, in which CO2reduction of 80% by 2050 is imposed on the Swedish energy system, the total bioenergy utilization increases by 63% by 2050 compared to 2010. The largest increase occurs in the transport sector, which by 2050 accounts for 43% of the total primary bioenergy use. The high demand and strong competition significantly increase biomass prices and lead to the utilization of higher cost biomass sources such as stumps and cultivated energy forest, as well as use of pulpwood resources for energy purposes.

Keywords

biofuels; biomass; climate policy; energy system; greenhouse gas; MARKAL; model; scenario

Published in

GCB Bioenergy
2015, Volume: 7, number: 5, pages: 1118-1135

SLU Authors

• Athanassiadis, Dimitris

  • Department of Forest Biomaterials and Technology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
SDG12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns


UKÄ Subject classification

Forest Science
Bioenergy


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12225

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/66388