Abstract

Background: In this paper, the hazard and exposure concepts from risk assessment are applied in an innovative approach to understand zoonotic disease risk. Hazard is here related to the landscape ecology determining where the hosts, vectors and pathogens are and, exposure is defined as the attractiveness and accessibility to hazardous areas. Tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden was used as a case study.Methods: Three boosted regression tree models are compared: a hazard model, an exposure model and a global model which combines the two approaches.Results: The global model offers the best predictive power and the most accurate modelling. The highest probabilities were found in easy-to-reach places with high landscape diversity, holiday houses, waterbodies and, well-connected forests of oak, birch or pine, with open-area in their ecotones, a complex shape, numerous clear-cuts and, a variation in tree height.Conclusion: While conditions for access and use of hazardous areas are quite specific to Scandinavia, this study offers promising perspectives to improve our understanding of the distribution of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in diverse contexts.

Keywords

Tick-borne disease; Zoonoses; Vector-borne disease; Risk

Published in

Parasites and Vectors
2014, Volume: 7, article number: 370
Publisher: BIOMED CENTRAL LTD

SLU Authors

• Olsson, Gert

  • Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

UKÄ Subject classification

Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Ecology


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/1756-3305-7-370

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/67584