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Report2015

A review on the state of the art in scenario modelling for environmental management : potential for application in achieving the Swedish


Sang, Neil (ed.); Ode Sang, Åsa (ed.)

Abstract

This report presents the core findings from a review of environmental scenario modelling. The focus is on several categories of problems which together represent coupled systems that will have impact on Sweden's 16 Environmental Objectives. The subjects cover different stages in relevant natural cycles (e.g. carbon, nutrients), the role of Land Use / Land Cover change within these and the socioeconomic drivers involved. Models have been selected with respect to availability, predictive accuracy and applied utility, and have been evaluated in respect of their relevance for land management decision making. Methodological issues in respect of integrating stakeholder opinions and citizen science into models are considered, as are broader issues of how infrastructure can facilitate use of scenario models. The increasing interest in participatory modelling approaches reflects a growing recognition that models can serve as extremely valuable platforms for assisting stakeholders in understanding current conditions and the causes behind these conditions. Approaches of this type are considered likely to increase in popularity in the future.

Keywords

landscape; scenario; modelling; GIS; environmental goals; climate change; participation; planning

Published in

Rapport / Naturvårdsverket
2015, number: 6695ISBN: 978-91-620-6695-6Publisher: Naturvårdsverket