Abstract

Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator-prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

Keywords

context-dependence; downscaling; predator-prey interaction; resilience; spatial heterogeneity; spatial scale

Published in

Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences
2015, Volume: 370, number: 1659, article number: 20130271
Publisher: ROYAL SOC

SLU Authors

• Casini, Michele

  • Department of Aquatic Resources (SLU Aqua), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development


UKÄ Subject classification

Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Ecology


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0271

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/71931